Ronald Bailey har skrivit en väldigt intressant artikel om hur statlig kontroll och statligt ägnade förstör oljeproduktionen över hela världen.
[T]he days when you could punch a hole in the ground and up would bubble some crude have now passed. It will take increasing technical savvy and a lot of money to keep oil production up with demand. Fortunately, the International Energy Agency believes that projected demand for oil and gas can be met if producers invest $4.3 trillion and $3.9 trillion (in 2005 dollars) respectively over the next 25 years. The question is that level of investment happening?
That’s were I get worried. The problem arises because 77 percent of the world’s known oil reserves are in the hands of state-owned oil companies. Such “companies” do not respond with alacrity to market signals and so are under-investing in new production technologies and even in maintaining the production facilities that they currently have. I have earlier pointed out that an “oil crisis,” that is, a steep rapid run up in the price of oil may occur at any time due to government incompetence or maliciousness.
Sedan ger han en lång rad intressanta och avslöjande exempel. Vad sägs om Iran?
A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences caught my attention when it projected that Iran’s exports of oil could dry up by 2015. Why? Because, according Johns Hopkins University geographer Roger Stern, “Iran’s petroleum sector is unlikely to attract investment sufficient to maintain oil exports. Maintaining exports would require foreign investment to increase when it appears to be declining.” Basically, Iran’s oil exploration and production facilities are rusting away as the Iranian government spends the current oil windfall to maintain itself in power. The country cannot generate enough investment capital nor develop the expertise it needs to boost oil production without foreign private investment.
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