Stefan Karlsson skrev igår ett blogginlägg där han kommenterade Timbrorapportens slutsatser ytterligare. Hans enda problem med rapporten berör hur de behandlar konjunkturuppgången under innehavande år. Karlsson skriver:

The one slightly unsatisfactory part about the section of growth is their account of the much stronger growth that seems to occur this year, where they write that it is an open question as to whether this will be the beginning of a new trajectory of higher growth or a single year of cyclical boom caused by fiscal stimulus remains unclear. While the small tax cut certainly have helped somewhat, it is not by itself sufficent to significantly lift either the long-term structural or short-term cyclical growth of the Swedish economy. Instead, the main reason for the higher growth this year is monetary stimulus, with interest rates being lowered a year ago to an all time low of 1.5%, something which set into motion a surge in money supply and bank lending growth even higher than in the Euro-zone (that saying a lot). Moreover, by weakening the exchange rate of the krona, it also temporarily stimulated exports. While interest rates have started to rise again now, it have not done so faster than in the Euro-zone and so monetary policy is still even more stimulative/inflationary than in the Euro-zone.

Och de som kan sin konjunkturcykelteori, vet att detta betyder dåliga nyheter!